We consider the problem of controlling an unknown stochastic linear system with quadratic costs - called the adaptive LQ control problem. We re-examine an approach called "Reward-Biased Maximum Likelihood Estimate" (RBMLE) [1] that was proposed more than forty years ago, and which predates the "Upper Confidence Bound" (UCB) method as well as the definition of "regret" for bandit problems [2]. It simply added a term favoring parameters with larger rewards to the criterion for parameter estimation. We show how the RBMLE and UCB methods can be reconciled, and thereby propose an Augmented RBMLE-UCB algorithm that combines the penalty of the RBMLE method with the constraints of the UCB method [3], uniting the two approaches to optimism in the face of uncertainty. We establish that theoretically, this method retains Õ( T) regret, the best known so far. We further compare the empirical performance of the proposed Augmented RBMLE-UCB and the standard RBMLE (without the augmentation) with UCB, Thompson Sampling, Input Perturbation, Randomized Certainty Equivalence and StabL on many real-world examples including flight control of Boeing 747 and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle. We perform extensive simulation studies showing that the Augmented RBMLE consistently outperforms UCB, Thompson Sampling and StabL by a huge margin, while it is marginally better than Input Perturbation and moderately better than Randomized Certainty Equivalence.

While synthetic data hold great promise for privacy protection, their statistical analysis poses significant challenges that necessitate innovative solutions. The use of deep generative models (DGMs) for synthetic data generation is known to induce considerable bias and imprecision into synthetic data analyses, compromising their inferential utility as opposed to original data analyses. This bias and uncertainty can be substantial enough to impede statistical convergence rates, even in seemingly straightforward analyses like mean calculation.

Recently developed quasi-Bayesian (QB) methods [29] proposed a stimulating change of paradigm in Bayesian computation by directly constructing the Bayesian predictive distribution through recursion, removing the need for expensive computations involved in sampling the Bayesian posterior distribution. This has proved to be data-efficient for univariate predictions, however, existing constructions for higher dimensional densities are only possible by relying on restrictive assumptions on the model's multivariate structure. Here, we propose a wholly different approach to extend Quasi-Bayesian prediction to high dimensions through the use of Sklar's theorem, by decomposing the predictive distribution into one-dimensional predictive marginals and a high-dimensional copula. We use the efficient recursive QB construction for the one-dimensional marginals and model the dependence using highly expressive vine copulas. Further, we tune hyperparameters using robust divergences (eg.

Personalised federated learning (FL) aims at collaboratively learning a machine learning model tailored for each client. Albeit promising advances have been made in this direction, most of existing approaches do not allow for uncertainty quantification which is crucial in many applications. In addition, personalisation in the cross-silo and cross-device setting still involves important issues, especially for new clients or those having small number of observations. This paper aims at filling these gaps. To this end, we propose a novel methodology coined FedPop by recasting personalised FL into the population modeling paradigm where clients' models involve fixed common population parameters and random effects, aiming at explaining data heterogeneity. To derive convergence guarantees for our scheme, we introduce a new class of federated stochastic optimisation algorithms which relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Compared to existing personalised FL methods, the proposed methodology has important benefits: it is robust to client drift, practical for inference on new clients, and above all, enables uncertainty quantification under mild computational and memory overheads. We provide nonasymptotic convergence guarantees for the proposed algorithms and illustrate their performances on various personalised federated learning tasks.

Real-world offline datasets are often subject to data corruptions (such as noise or adversarial attacks) due to sensor failures or malicious attacks. Despite advances in robust offline reinforcement learning (RL), existing methods struggle to learn robust agents under high uncertainty caused by the diverse corrupted data (i.e., corrupted states, actions, rewards, and dynamics), leading to performance degradation in clean environments. To tackle this problem, we propose a novel robust variational Bayesian inference for offline RL (TRACER). It introduces Bayesian inference for the first time to capture the uncertainty via offline data for robustness against all types of data corruptions.

This paper advances temporal reasoning within dynamically changing highdimensional noisy observations, focusing on a latent space that characterizes the nonlinear dynamics of objects in their environment. We introduce the Gated Inference Network (GIN), an efficient approximate Bayesian inference algorithm for state space models (SSMs) with nonlinear state transitions and emissions. GIN disentangles two latent representations: one representing the object derived from a nonlinear mapping model, and another representing the latent state describing its dynamics. This disentanglement enables direct state estimation and missing data imputation as the world evolves. To infer the latent state, we utilize a deep extended Kalman filter (EKF) approach that integrates a novel compact RNN structure to compute both the Kalman Gain (KG) and smoothing gain (SG), completing the data flow. This design results in a computational cost per step that is linearly faster than EKF but introduces issues such as the exploding gradient problem. To mitigate the exploding gradients caused by the compact RNN structure in our model, we propose a specialized learning method that ensures stable training and inference. The model is then trained end-to-end on videos depicting a diverse range of simulated and real-world physical systems, and outperforms its counterparts --RNNs, autoregressive models, and variational approaches-- in state estimation and missing data imputation tasks.

With the widespread adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs), the prevalence of iterative interactions among these models is anticipated to increase. Notably, recent advancements in multi-round on-policy self-improving methods allow LLMs to generate new examples for training subsequent models. At the same time, multiagent LLM systems, involving automated interactions among agents, are also increasing in prominence. Thus, in both short and long terms, LLMs may actively engage in an evolutionary process. We draw parallels between the behavior of LLMs and the evolution of human culture, as the latter has been extensively studied by cognitive scientists for decades. Our approach involves leveraging Iterated Learning (IL), a Bayesian framework that elucidates how subtle biases are magnified during human cultural evolution, to explain some behaviors of LLMs. This paper outlines key characteristics of agents' behavior in the Bayesian-IL framework, including predictions that are supported by experimental verification with various LLMs. This theoretical framework could help to more effectively predict and guide the evolution of LLMs in desired directions.

Data point selection (DPS) is becoming a critical topic in deep learning due to the ease of acquiring uncurated training data compared to the difficulty of obtaining curated or processed data. Existing approaches to DPS are predominantly based on a bi-level optimisation (BLO) formulation, which is demanding in terms of memory and computation, and exhibits some theoretical defects regarding minibatches. Thus, we propose a novel Bayesian approach to DPS. We view the DPS problem as posterior inference in a novel Bayesian model where the posterior distributions of the instance-wise weights and the main neural network parameters are inferred under a reasonable prior and likelihood model. We employ stochastic gradient Langevin MCMC sampling to learn the main network and instance-wise weights jointly, ensuring convergence even with minibatches. Our update equation is comparable to the widely used SGD and much more efficient than existing BLObased methods. Through controlled experiments in both the vision and language domains, we present the proof-of-concept. Additionally, we demonstrate that our method scales effectively to large language models and facilitates automated per-task optimization for instruction fine-tuning datasets.

Multivariate Hawkes processes are commonly used to model streaming networked event data in a wide variety of applications. However, it remains a challenge to extract reliable inference from complex datasets with uncertainty quantification. Aiming towards this, we develop a statistical inference framework to learn causal relationships between nodes from networked data, where the underlying directed graph implies Granger causality. We provide uncertainty quantification for the maximum likelihood estimate of the network multivariate Hawkes process by providing a non-asymptotic confidence set. The main technique is based on the concentration inequalities of continuous-time martingales. We compare our method to the previously-derived asymptotic Hawkes process confidence interval, and demonstrate the strengths of our method in an application to neuronal connectivity reconstruction.

Multivariate Hawkes processes are commonly used to model streaming networked event data in a wide variety of applications. However, it remains a challenge to extract reliable inference from complex datasets with uncertainty quantification. Aiming towards this, we develop a statistical inference framework to learn causal relationships between nodes from networked data, where the underlying directed graph implies Granger causality. We provide uncertainty quantification for the maximum likelihood estimate of the network multivariate Hawkes process by providing a non-asymptotic confidence set. The main technique is based on the concentration inequalities of continuous-time martingales. We compare our method to the previously-derived asymptotic Hawkes process confidence interval, and demonstrate the strengths of our method in an application to neuronal connectivity reconstruction.